... ELECTION UPDATE

House Gains Expected for Democrats, Senate in the Balance

With only 10 days to go before the 2006 mid-term elections, some political analysts are anticipating the Democratic Party will make major gains in the House and possibly the Senate. Were this to happen, political control of the legislative agenda will surely change.

Analysts report weakness in polling numbers for Republicans in general, mostly among independents who appear to be breaking in large numbers for Democrats. The trend is not indicative of a broad "clean house" sentiment among voters to support all challengers against incumbents, because only a relative handful of Democratic incumbents appear to be in danger of losing their seats.

Political Pundits' Prognostications
At this writing, The Cook Political Report is projecting a 20 to 35 seat loss for Republicans in the U.S. House of Representatives—many more than the 15 needed to cede control to the Democrats.

In the Senate, Publisher Charlie Cook sees a Republican loss of at least four seats, but possibly more. Control of the Senate, therefore, hangs in the balance.

The Rothenberg Political Report says the effects of redistricting cloud the picture in many races, generally to soften the blow of the bad political climate. He notes this is counterbalanced by a political environment worse for Republicans in 2006 than it was for Democrats in 1994. When Editor and Publisher Stuart Rothenberg factors historical data with the redistricting impact, he arrives at a broad range of 22 to 45 House seats likely to be gained by Democrats.

In the Senate, both Cook and Rothenberg suggest the current Republican seats in Pennsylvania, Montana, Rhode Island, and Ohio are not likely to be retained.

The Senate GOP seats in Missouri, Tennessee, and Virginia are toss-ups and key to controlling the Senate. On the other hand, there is a possibility that Democratic seats in New Jersey and Maryland may go to Republicans, based on strong challenges by attractive candidates in those races.

Both analysts point out that major events between now and election day could change the outcome. They note, too, that Republicans have mounted a strenuous effort to bring their voters to the polls. In the end, turnout will determine the election and control of Congress. Companies that want to change the results should motivate people in their business networks to get voters to the polls.

View from the White House
The White House perspective on the elections tells a much more optimistic analysis compared to that of Cook and Rothenberg. On Wednesday, PCA staff participated in a pre-election conference call with Karl Rove, deputy chief of staff and senior advisor to the president.

Rove asserted that the GOP will retain the House and Senate, consistent with his and the president's recent public statements. Rove said the GOP has spend more than $60 million in its "get out the vote" efforts. He added that recent poll numbers indicate the GOP will hold the Congress, although he said there are many "tough races" ahead.

In addition to the election overview, Rove discussed the president's agenda and accomplishments on tax cuts, job creation, and the war on terror.

For more information, contact: Randy Pence or John Shaw.

Science Panel Recommends Lower Ozone in Air Quality Standards

This week the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) Clean Air Science Advisory Committee (CASAC) sent the agency a letter containing recommendations for reconsideration of the national ambient air quality standard (NAAQS) for ozone.

CASAC recommends a primary NAAQS in the range of 0.060 to 0.070 ppm (down from the 1997 level of 0.080) and a separate seasonal secondary standard.

The EPA staff paper recommended either leaving the NAAQS at 0.080 or lowering it to 0.070. Many observers suspect that CASAC has drawn a line in the sand on this issue as a challenge to EPA.

Some CASAC members were not pleased that the levels of EPA's proposed and final NAAQS for particulate matter were outside of CASAC's recommended range.

Contact: Tom Carter.

Lafarge Prevails in Mercury Dispute

The Alpena County Circuit Court ruled that the Michigan Department of Environmental Quality (MDEQ) did not have the authority to regulate mercury output from the Lafarge Alpena cement plant.

The ruling was the result of a law suit filed by Lafarge after negotiations between Lafarge and the MDEQ on a mercury reduction strategy due to the cement plant's expansion broke down.

Judge Thomas Brookover stated in his opinion that "the case is not about whether mercury is dangerous to the public health, or what level of mercury emissions are safe, but rather, what limitations the MDEQ may impose under the statutes and regulations that currently exists."

Currently there are no state approved air-quality rules for mercury from cement plants. Lafarge has stated that the disagreement with MDEQ was mostly procedural. Lafarge agrees that there is a need for limits on mercury but the methodology to get there was the sticking point.

Lafarge spokesman Craig Ryan said, "The bottom line is that we are on record committed to voluntarily reducing our emissions, and we are going to honor that."

Lafarge is currently researching mercury reductions technologies that would reduce its emissions lower than the 390 pounds per year it has already agreed to do.

For more information, contact: John Sullivan or Andy O'Hare.

Government Defends Decision Not to Regulate Carbon Dioxide

The Bush Administration filed a brief yesterday with the U.S. Supreme Court arguing that the federal government has not been granted authority by Congress under the Clean Air Act to regulate carbon dioxide as a criteria pollutant similar to nitrogen oxides and sulfur dioxides.

The government also argued that the organizations that filed the petition challenging the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's interpretation of the Clean Air Act do not have standing before the Supreme Court, because they have not demonstrated that they have been harmed.

PCA, along with a group of other industry associations, filed a brief in support of the government's perspective.

The Supreme Court will hear the case in late November.

Contact: Andy O'Hare.

Voluntary Programs Reduce U.S. Emissions by 63 Million Tons

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) this week released a report concluding that voluntary activities undertaken by industry avoided more than 63 million metric tons (MMT) of greenhouse gas emissions. This is up from last year's figure of 57MMT.

The document catalogs the contributions from various voluntary initiatives including the Energy Star, Climate VISION, and Climate Leader programs. The cement industry participates in all of these programs.

According to the EPA report, the largest emissions savings occurred through the Energy Star program where almost 34 million metric tons of emissions were avoided. Click here to read the most recent annual report on climate protection partnerships.

Contact: Andy O'Hare.

Motor Safety Carrier Administration to Hold Public Listening Session

The Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA) recently announced that it will hold a public listening session on November 16 in Washington, D.C.

The FMCSA is interested in feedback about the how the agency can develop and deploy a new model to identify drivers and carriers that pose safety risks.

In August 2004, FMCSA embarked on the Comprehensive Safety Analysis 2010 (CSA 2010) initiative, the purpose of which is "...development of an optimal operational model that will allow FMCSA to focus its limited resources on improving the safety performance of high-risk operators."

A new model may properly replace the Safety Status Measurement System, or SAFESTAT system, an automated, data driven analysis system designed by the FMCSA. The system analyzes current and historical safety performance and compliance information to rank the relative safety fitness of commercial motor carriers.

The regulated community has expressed concerns about both the accuracy and timeliness of motor carrier information found in the SAFESTAT database.

NRMCA will attend the public session and provide assistance in formulating a new model to measure safety performance among motor carriers.

Click here to read more about the CSA 2010 initiative.

Contact: Tom Harman.

Former EPA Air Chief Joins Washington Law Firm Former

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Assistant Administrator for Air and Radiation Jeff Holmstead has joined the Washington, D.C., practice of Bracewell & Giuliani LLP.

PCA had a strong relationship with Holmstead while he served at EPA for the duration of President Bush's first term.

Bracewell & Giuliani—which changed its name after the recent addition of former New York Mayor Rudolph W. Giuliani—also has a long history with the cement industry. The relationship continues today.

Contact: Tom Carter.

Congressional Recess Continues

The U.S. Senate and House of Representatives continue their recess until after the elections, which are scheduled for a week from Tuesday.

NACA government affairs team members continue to work with Congressional staffers as well as key government agencies to address issues of importance to members and the industries at large.

Questions about this newsletter? For more information or to unsubscribe, send an e-mail to info@washingtonbriefing.com.